Current market conditions in commercial aviation will promote continued MRO growth from 2024 through 2034, when it will reach a value of about $135 billion in constant 2024 dollars (see below). During the first few years, MRO revenues will rise primarily because of the high demand for maintenance on older fleets. Over the longer term, however, most of the MRO growth will come from underlying airline growth that will outpace the impact of the shift to next-generation aircraft that have lower airframe maintenance requirements or may not hit major costly maintenance milestones during our forecast’s time frame.

While MRO spending will trend upward for most of the next ten years, a slight dip is expected in 2031 and 2032. This is a downstream impact from both the halt of 737 MAX production, which began in 2019, and the lower deliveries during the years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The introduction of next-generation aircraft is also expected to influence spending across MRO categories. For instance, demand for airframe services will remain flat, even though fleet size is growing, because of the composite structures of next-generation aircraft that require less maintenance than their mostly metallic predecessors did. Engine MRO will continue to account for the largest share of MRO spending, with demand expected to be particularly strong over the next several years as the technological issues are being resolved and previous-generation engines reach their peak maintenance demand.

Unsurprisingly, the Asia–Pacific region is expected to remain the largest MRO market. It is expected to increase 0.8 percent annually from 2024 to 2034, when it will account for 32 percent of the global market (see below). Europe and North America are both expected to maintain a share of about 25 percent each, with annual growth rates of 1.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/what-does-the-future-hold-for-commercial-aviation-maintenance